- Author: Pride
- Date: December 10, 2021
- Expansion: TBC Classic
With all of the nerfs to tier 5 content and tier 6 raids becoming available for testing on the TBC PTR, it is clear that Blizzard is gearing up for the release of phase 3 / tier 6 content. The question on everyone’s mind is simple: when will it be released?
Blizzard has been really cryptic on that front so far. Not only have they not given an official date, but even the hints we have so far are mostly vague: the nerfs just got suddenly announced, and tier 6 on the PTR still has not been announced, to the point where many are speculating it might have been added by accident.
However, we can use past data and other contextual clues to extrapolate a possible release date. For instance, phase 2 came out on a Wednesday, and it is likely that Blizzard will stick to Wednesday releases in order to accommodate EU players, whose weekly raid reset happens on Wednesdays. So the question then becomes, which Wednesday?
Well, the phase 2 PTR started on July 29 and lasted until August 31, at which point the first batch of phase 2 content was made available on live servers. That is a period of 33 days, or 2 days shy off 5 weeks. Tier 5 raids became available 15 days later, on September 15, for a total of 48 days — just 1 day short off 7 weeks.
Given these parameters, the most likely release dates for phase 3 thus are January 5, 12 or 19. Blizzard likely do not want to release the new content so soon after New Year’s, thus the safest bets for a release date would be January 12 or January 19.
This timeframe likely works well for Blizzard, as Season of Mastery content is beginning to wind down and the Shadowlands 9.2 patch is currently very far off its likely release window, so WoW fans who play multiple expansions have a lot of downtime. It would give returning players ample time to clear all of the current content and get attuned for the new raids in time, without letting players who have been farming it since its release in September get bored with the nerfed content.
What are your thoughts on this topic? Is the release date too soon or too distant for you? Are you excited about tier 6 raids and phase 3 content? Let us know in the comments below!